A Rambling Slate

On Thursday I took part in the great exercise of our democratic system, I voted, alongside 29,653,637 of my fellow Brits. This was the culmination of a campaign that began with Gordon Brown taking office on 27^th June 2007 and ended with the upheaval of the traditional two-and-a-half-party politics. After a TV marathon filled with unbelievable exit polls, 22.9% swings, the destruction of the BNP’s representatives and regional politics removing the words “Uniform National Swing” from the pundits’ dictionary, what are we left with now? In the words of Paddy Ashdown, ”The people have spoken but we don’t know what they’ve said”.

We couldn't find a Labour supporter, so I tried to represent what I thought would happen.

After an election David Cameron was planning on cruising through we got a surprise; the rise of the 3rd party and unexpectedly strong defence by Labour has resulted in the now infamous “Hung Parliament”. As annoying as it was for everyone, Clegg did the right thing by not confirming what would happen after the election because we’re in a position that no-one was predicting. Not only do the Conservatives not have an absolute majority, but the Labour party don’t have enough seats to form a majority coalition government with Liberal Democrat support alone. Why is this important? Well it really affects the decisions of the Liberal Democrats this time around.

The Conservatives used their opportunity to propose a “big, open and comprehensive offer” to the Liberal Democrats, offering them the possibility of actually implementing several of their policies and providing them with cabinet seats. But this comes at a cost; they’re refusing to budge on Proportional Representation. Instead they are proposing an “all party committee of inquiry on political and electoral reform”, an offer Sir Humphrey Appleby would be proud to put his name to. Ultimately, considering the Conservatives have nearly 6 times the number of seats (whether or not it’s fair), this is actually a very competitive offer and more than I was expecting. We would get a strong majority government, one that actually has policies based on the reality of the debt crisis the country is in and would help calm the markets.

You can see the Liberal Democrats reasoned demands for Proportional Representation

Labour, or more specifically Gordon Brown, has thrown a massive spanner in the works. Managing to defend an unexpectedly large number of seats this election he feels he still has a chance of clinging on. After attempting to bribe voters with Child Tax Credits, the Child Trust Fund (a way for the government to provide a rather awesome 18th birthday party) and other policies based on “securing the recovery” whilst ignoring the massive hole we’re digging in doing so, Mr Brown is at it again offering the Liberal Democrats the thing they’ve been hungering for over 100 years, Proportional Representation. This puts them in an awkward situation, to appease public demand (which is finally ready for PR) or appease “the markets” who have been demonised as the route of all evil. Unfortunately they can also decide to destroy the country if they refuse to finance our debt; we may secure the recovery, but end up having it cave in soon after.

Conservatives, DUP and Industrial Unionists vs. Labour, Liberal Democrat and the SDLP. All this, and it's still well hung!

There is one thing that might help them in this matter, the sheer fact that if they do join Labour they would require support from the regional national parties or face forming a minority coalition government. If they do so, they would have to form an alliance with the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the SDLP and we would have a government that would never be able to propose cuts and be inherently unstable. If they decide to form a minority coalition government they’d just be mad and would need the support of these minor parties regardless of official coalition. Do we really want Alex Salmond deciding on cuts? Lets not forget Scotland don’t pay tuition fees, but England does thanks to Scottish MPs.

I voted for the Liberal Democrats hoping for a Conservative majority with a Liberal Democrat opposition. I thought that the Conservatives have a lot of good ideas, but need to be stopped from going too far. My current view is that a Liberal Democrat / Conservative coalition would hope to achieve a similar thing. I don’t think they appreciate (or perhaps care) how badly cuts are going to destroy the North again, who unfortunately now have a large proportion of their economy based on the public sector as opposed to the nationalised industry it was in the 80s. Whilst I agree this must change, will the Conservative party remember the lessons of the Thatcher years and to be gentle, with a plan to replace the jobs that the inevitable public sector cuts will remove.

The Liberal Democrats are going to have to do a very hard thing and put the future of the country ahead of both their personal and supporter’s beliefs and form a coalition with the Conservative Party. As much as I would support a move to a more representative system, now is not the time to do so. The country cannot afford to wait for a PR referendum and the subsequently required General Election; now is not the time to have a government that sticks its fingers in its ears and ignores the challenges and difficult decisions that we were constantly told about during the election. Nowhere has Brown mentioned these difficult decisions, and this PR stunt is a way to grab victory from the jaws of defeat by distracting the country from its real problems. A Lib/Lab coalition is a poisoned chalice, we’d get PR but destroy the Liberal Democrat party in creating the most feeble government for the most desperate of times.